A study into Victoria’s population growth has found the state is set to boom over the next 20 years.


The study, Victoria in Future 2012, attempts to calculate the state’s population and household projects for the years between 2011 and 2031 for Victoria and its regions.


The highlights are below:


  • At 30 June 2011, the population of Victoria was 5.6 million.
  • Melbourne is home to nearly three-quarters of the state’s population (4.1 million), while almost 1.5 million people live in regional Victoria.
  • Over the 40 years to 2051, Victoria’s population is projected to increase by 3.2 million to 8.7 million. Over the same period, Melbourne’s population is expected to grow to 6.5 million, while regional Victoria is projected to grow to 2.3 million.
  • On current trends, overseas migration is expected to be the largest driver of population change in Victoria over the projection period, although the impact of natural increase should not be discounted.
  • VIF 2012 projects that Melbourne will receive the majority of Victoria’s overseas migrants and also experience high levels of natural increase (the excess of births over deaths). Regional Victoria is expected to gain residents from Melbourne over the projection period. This migration from Melbourne will be the main contributor to the change in regional Victoria’s population.
  • As its population ages and the number of deaths increases, regional Victoria is projected to experience natural decreases in the later years of the projection period. (There are a number of municipalities where deaths already outnumber births each year.)
  • Victoria’s population age profile is projected to be older in 2051 than in 2011. The median age of the population is expected to increase from 37 years in 2011 to 41.0 years in 2051. The proportion of the population aged 65 years and older is projected to increase from 13.9% to 22.1%. The greatest proportional change for any age group is projected to be in the oldest age group: the number of Victorians aged 85 years and older is expected to almost quadruple to over 400,000 by 2051.
  • The rate of change of the number of households in Victoria is projected to exceed the rate of change in the population as the average household size gradually decreases over the projection period. As the population ages, there is projected to be a lower proportion of families with children and a higher proportion of lone person and couple-only households


The full report can be found here.