New modelling is being used to predict water catchment issues decades ahead. 

Sydney’s drinking water catchments are under close examination as WaterNSW, in collaboration with the University of Technology Sydney’s (UTS) Institute for Sustainable Futures, has unveiled a series of detailed future scenarios for 2040 and 2060. 

These scenarios explore the potential impact of land use changes on the water supply for Greater Sydney, an area home to more than five million people.

The Catchment Futures Scenario Project employs a creative scientific approach, combining historical land use data with projections to address the challenges posed by urbanisation, climate change, and population growth. 

By leveraging Geographic Information System (GIS) projections and narrative-driven models, WaterNSW says it is setting the stage for proactive planning.

The authority says that the project extends beyond traditional modelling techniques by incorporating narrative scenarios. 

These narratives are used to fuel critical and creative thinking, enabling stakeholders to visualise how different futures might unfold. 

Among the scenarios, one envisions increased investment in catchment management leading to reforestation and a healthier environment, with minimal urban expansion. 

Another scenario imagines the introduction of a high-speed rail link between Sydney and Canberra, spurring the development of new urban centres that reduce pressure on Sydney’s outskirts while promoting integrated water management in these new regions.

In another possible future, renewable energy and carbon forestry dominate the catchment areas, driving significant environmental restoration efforts and creating a balance between development and conservation. 

Alternatively, a scenario depicting higher-than-expected population growth results in dense urbanisation near catchment boundaries, necessitating a dual focus on catchment management and alternative water sources like desalination.

One of the more challenging scenarios imagines a future where severe droughts and fires lead to full reliance on advanced water treatment technologies, with less emphasis on catchment management. 

Another scenario explores the impact of constant climate emergencies, where the focus shifts to emergency response and mitigation, with catchment management becoming a secondary priority.

The experts say that the scenarios developed by WaterNSW and UTS highlight the importance of collaboration between academic institutions and industry.