A new study has uncovered insights from 15 years of crashes on Melbourne roads. 

The research analyses data regarding road crash frequencies and their correlations with various socio-demographic and environmental factors. 

It uses advanced statistical models to unpick the complexities of road safety in the bustling metropolitan area.

The research employed a Tweedie model to explore the nuanced relationships between crash frequency and variables like job density, age demographics, road infrastructure, and notably, the built environment. 

The study found that higher job density within Local Government Areas correlates strongly with increased accident rates, likely due to intensified traffic congestion and vehicle interactions in these economically active zones.

Distinct age groups, particularly 25 to 29 and 60 to 65, show a higher propensity for accidents. 

For younger drivers, factors such as traffic violations and risky driving behaviours are prevalent, whereas older drivers are more affected by factors like reduced visibility and cognitive challenges.

The presence of bike lanes, while promoting cycling as a green alternative, also introduces complexities in road user interactions, leading to a 30 per cent increase in accident likelihood in areas with such infrastructure.

Spatial analysis identified five risk clusters in Melbourne’s suburbs, revealing a shift in accident hotspots, moving outward over the years. This dispersion suggests changing urban dynamics and the need for localised traffic management strategies.

The study also highlights the influence of road infrastructure on safety. 

High traffic volumes measured by Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) and Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) are strong predictors of accident frequencies, reinforcing the need for robust traffic management systems that can adapt to increasing vehicular movements.

The analysis extends to the role of environmental features like street lighting and its association with reduced accident occurrences at night. 

Furthermore, the proximity to central business districts (CBDs) and nightlife areas like hotels and clubs correlates with higher accident rates, underscoring the interplay between social activities and traffic safety.

The data from the study could be invaluable for policymakers tasked with enhancing road safety. 

“Understanding the dynamic interaction of socio-demographic, infrastructural, and environmental factors is crucial for developing effective road safety strategies,” says lead researcher Dr Ali Soltani.

“Our study provides a roadmap for future urban planning and safety interventions.”

The full paper is accessible here.